A new spin on Hurwitz theory and ELSV via theta characteristics

We study spin Hurwitz numbers, which count ramified covers of the Riemann sphere with a sign coming from a theta characteristic. These numbers are known to be related to Gromov-Witten theory of Kähler surfaces and to representation theory of the Sergeev group, and are generated by BKP tau-functions. We use the latter interpretation to give polynomiality properties of these numbers and we derive a spectral curve which we conjecture computes spin Hurwitz numbers via a new type of topological recursion. We prove that this conjectural topological recursion is equivalent to an ELSV-type formula, expressing spin Hurwitz numbers in terms of the Chiodo class twisted by the \(2\)-spin Witten class.